Hezbollah Admits Mistakes
In speeches and iconography, Hezbollah has cast the war as a "divine victory." But a reconstruction of the period before and soon after the seizure of the soldiers reveals a series of miscalculations on the part of the 24-year-old movement that defies its carefully cultivated reputation for planning and caution. Hezbollah's leadership sometimes waited days to evacuate the poor, densely populated neighborhood in southern Beirut that is its stronghold. Only as Israeli warplanes began reducing the headquarters to rubble did they realize the scope of what the Israeli military intended. Hezbollah fighters were still planning to train in Iran the very month that the soldiers were seized; Hezbollah leaders in Beirut had assured Lebanese officials of a relatively uneventful summer.Above illustrates the fact that Hezbollah's 'victory' was nothing more than mere propaganda. Later Nasrallah would admit that he did not know Israel would respond with force. He stated that he regretted ordering the kidnapping due to the losses at the hands of Israel. Although Nasrallah was short-sighted, it would appear that PM Siniora expected the Israeli response:
The meeting on July 12 was tense, tinged with desperation. A few hours earlier, in a brazen raid, Hezbollah guerrillas had infiltrated across the heavily fortified border and captured two Israeli soldiers. Lebanon's prime minister summoned Hussein Khalil, an aide to Hezbollah's leader, to his office at the Serail, the palatial four-story government headquarters of red tile and colonnades in Beirut's downtown.The fact that Siniora, the Prime Minister of Lebanon, was forced into diplomacy with a roving terrorist group is an example of Lebanese weakness. Siniora had no power when it came to controlling the terrorist group. If he did, he wouldn't have allowed the kidnapping that sparked the war.
"What have you done?" Prime Minister Fouad Siniora asked him.
Khalil reassured him, according to an account by two officials briefed by Siniora, one of whom later confirmed it with the prime minister. "It will calm down in 24 to 48 hours."
More technocrat than politician, Siniora was skeptical. He pointed to the Gaza Strip, which Israeli forces had stormed after Palestinian militants abducted a soldier less than three weeks earlier. Israeli warplanes had blasted bridges and Gaza's main power station.
Calmly, Khalil looked at him. "Lebanon is not Gaza," he answered.
"I can reach Haifa and beyond Haifa," Nasrallah was quoted as answering them, according to Marwan Hamadeh, the telecommunications minister and a critic of Hezbollah who took part in the dialogue. Israel would not risk a Hezbollah missile attack, Nasrallah added, which could strike its petrochemical industry and the northern third of the country, including some of its most populated regions.Wrong Nasrallah! The fact that homemade rockets can reach Haifa didn't discourage Israel from attacking and beating Hezbollah. Nor will it discourage Israel in the future. Israel doesn't capitulate to terrorist threats. Israel had a superior military, intelligence, culture, and history - Hezbollah didn't have a chance. Saying "we won" isn't fooling anyone. I take that back, it is fooling Arabs already brainwashed by terrorist propaganda.
"He considered his potential threat as his deterrent," Hamadeh said, "that Israel would not escalate."
Thomas Friedman wrote, "Before the war, Israel made microchips and Lebanon made potato chips. After the war, Israel will make microchips and Lebanon, nothing." Friedman also stated that Nasrallah condemned the Arab population to, "Another decade of making potato chips, not microchips." Friedman was right. Siniora lamented how the Second Lebanon War set back infrastructure by fifteen years. How far back was Israel's infrastructure set back? (Hint: It wasn't - in fact it grew.)
Despite the pro-Hezbollah propaganda circulating in Lebanon, despite Nasrallah's vain attempt to make the war appear to be a victory, we all know better. Nasrallah admitted he knew better. In the future he'll think longer before kidnapping Israelis.